Snow Forecast Early Call For Thursday 02092017

Let me dispel a few ideas that are already flying around. First of yes it will hit 60 or better at some point. The warm ground theory works for only an hour or two especially if it snows hard enough. By the time we get to Thursday morning if we get into some heavier bands of snow (big if) temperatures will likely be in the 20s. Second is the sun angle. This is vastly overplayed especially this time of year. It isn’t even worth considering at this point. What this really comes down to is how well developed will the wave be and how fast do temperatures collapse during the early morning hours on Thursday.

JOES’S SNOW FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 02092017 CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOW

The other issues to consider is how robust and how far north west will the snow be. If the wave to our south is weaker it would obviously shrink amounts and bring the northern area of snow further southeast. The opposite issue would be a robust tight wave just offshore which would bring a band fo heavy snow and temperatures in the low to mid 20s which means that amounts could go higher especially for Central New Jersey east to Long Island and South Coastal Connecticut. Right now my confidence level is low until we can get a better gauge on which way this system plays.

Meanwhile with respect to early Tuesday, Freezing rain and sleet I believe should be minimal before it goes to rain in those areas well inland where this applies. Freezing Rain Advisory for Northwest New Jersey and Orange County in the Hudson Valley and the Winter Weather Advisory for areas along and north of Route 84 in Connecticut to me are more precautionary than anything else and there should not be any serious icing issues. Just be aware there could be some slick spots in those areas.