Snow Threat Increases Interior Northeast
Snow Threat Increases Interior Northeast
Today’s weather models continue to point to a snow threat for the interior Northeast for this weekend, specifically later Saturday night and lasting into Monday as low pressure develops over the northeast. The European Model and the Canadian Model are the most robust because of how they handle the upper low that is going to strengthen along the coast. Both weather models are much deeper and further south than the GFS model.
The three models above show the position of the very strong and very cold upper air system in the east. The GFS is the weakest and basically treats this as a cold front with a deepening low over Southeastern Canada. The other two models take the upper low much further south and much more intense. If the European and the Canadian models are correct we will have a surface low developing overhead. This could create some hefty snows for places like the western half of Pennsylvania, Western NY with a very active lake effect machine going to work.
The key to the weekend event lies in the low that has moved through today as that upper feature cuts off in the Atlantic. A stronger low to the east will force the next trough to dig southeast toward our coastline, rather than the GFS idea of basically moving it straight across to the east. Either way it gets cold here beginning Saturday night and lasting through next week as the strong blocking pattern and crashing North Atlantic Oscillation index take complete control of the weather pattern going forward. This may open the door for a chance for precipitation late next week. The developing blocking pattern is going to make models very unstable going forward so look for wild swings in outlooks from model run to model run.
With regards to the longer term in general, I’m showing you the GFS upper at day 16 which is December 1st. If this even comes close to verifying, it would illustrate a dominate blocking pattern we have not seen probably since 2010-2011. Upper air indicators which first suggested this blocking and pattern change developing back at the beginning of November continue to point to the pattern continuing at least into Early December and possibly beyond that. Something like this would suggest opportunities for early cold and snow changes going forward.
Back to this weekend you can see the GFS and Canadian snowfall forecast maps above. The European snowfall map can’t be shown however if you take the Canadian map and double the snow amounts.
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