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Snow Possible Friday But There Are Issues

Snow Possible Friday But There Are Issues

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Snow Possible Friday But There Are Issues

With everything going on this week from record highs in the 70s and the threat for another round of severe thunderstorms late Wednesday, it would only be fitting if we wind up seeing some snow at the end of the week. Indeed weather models are showing an approaching disturbance from the Great Lakes as cold air comes down behind Wednesday’s storm as it moves into Southeastern Canada. However there are issues. Among them is the fact that the GFS model is the only model at the moment that shows anything of consequence from that disturbance at all.

SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY GFS MODEL

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Today’s late afternoon GFS model run has a fairly well defined system moving through and tracking across Central Pennsylvania to just south of Long Island. This could favor a coating to a couple of inches north and west of that track. This means basically north of Route 78  in New Jersey into NYC, Long Island and Connecticut. There would be little or nothing south of there. This would run pretty much in line with most of the weather events this winter IF IT HAPPENS! We are at this point skeptical since the GFS is the only model doing this. The European and Canadian model show next to nothing other than a weak system with clouds and perhaps a couple of flurries. The NAM model is not in range but from what we can see so far through Thursday night, it shows a small very tight system back in Ohio.

NAM MODEL 1AM FRIDAY

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Clearly models are handling the upper air system with this differently. It is hard to find a definable upper air disturbance. It is there on all the models but even the GFS model is not that impressive. Only the NAM model shows something perhaps a bit more of consequence. Right now the best approach from a forecast standpoint is to put in the chance for a little snow Friday morning and then it will be cold and dry Friday night into Saturday. We will watch the models overnight and on Tuesday if we see any trends. My suspicion is that models will lean toward the weaker solutions of the European and Canadian models because there really isn’t very much room for anything to happen. I want to see what the NAM model does with this when it comes into its time range.

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