snow

Snow Possibility Late Friday Night Saturday AM Coast

Snow Possibility Late Friday Night Saturday AM Coast

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Snow Possibility Late Friday Night Saturday AM Coast

As this cold front will be passing through tonight and then stalling out to our south we feel we have enough in front of us to begin looking at the weekend and the chances for snow. Right now it appears that the coast will be grazed with some precipitation late Friday night into Saturday morning and it will likely be snow. It appears that any snow will be confined to the immediate coast which means Coastal New Jersey mainly east of the Garden State Parkway to about NYC, Long Island and possibly Coastal Connecticut. North and west of that line it is likely that we will see just clouds and no snow at all. However let me caution that we have seen several situations in the last month where models shifted northwest at the last minute. The day before Thanksgiving comes to mind along with a few others.

GFS MODEL SATURDAY MORNING 7AM SNOW ON THE COAST

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There is still uncertainty here and enough room for this to go in either direction. What we have is a lot of energy running around in both the northern and southern part of the jet stream . The southern energy is responsible for the wave that is going to develop. Weather models have been slower and deeper with this short wave trough. It has slowed enough than the northern stream energy is getting closer to it. It is not impossible that the system in the south could be a bit slower and the one in the north could be a bit faster. If that happens then we would see the back edge of the precipitation shield pulled further northwest.

EUROPEAN MODEL SATURDAY MORNING 7AM

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From here model trends will be critical to watch starting with this afternoon’s NAM model which gave the first clue to this earlier today. As far as snow amounts are concerned we can say at this point that this DOES NOT look like anything unmanageable and would lean toward the light side of a coating to an inch or two right along the immediate coast. Obviously this could change somewhat if we wind up with something a little more phased and a little more to the left (closer to the coast). On the other hand models might be wrong with the southern energy as well as the north where the upper winds along the east coast are flatter. This would take the wave out further to the east and south and keep things offshore. It is the first system of the season and as always forecasting these things is like getting on a bicycle for the first time in a long time..the outcome could be a bit wobbly.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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