snow

Snow Looms In Very Cold Weather Pattern

Snow Looms In Very Cold Weather Pattern

snow

Snow Looms In Very Cold Weather Pattern

The National Weather Service has expanded the Winter Storm Watch area in areas around the Washington DC Baltimore area as the colder model trends of the last 24 hours continue with the occasional hiccup here and there. I’m not making any general changes to my overall forecast which basically is for 12 inches or more for a relatively large area from Washington DC to New England. Weather models today have variations on who gets the heaviest snow with some models throwing out some very high top numbers like the latest Canadian model as an example.

snow

The Canadian buries South Central and Southeastern Pennsylvania northeastward to NYC and Western Connecticut. Other models generally lay down a 12 to 18 inch snowfall through most of the area. This is almost impossible to figure since each model keys on the heavier precipitation to be in one place or another. Could there be some very high amounts? Sure there could be but calling top side is almost impossible given all the local climate effects, mountians, valleys, flat lands, coastal plain etc. So the best thing is anticipate a foot or more and if you wind up with much more…well it should not be a surprise.

snow

Meanwhile it is another bitter cold (for mid March) afternoon with midday temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s in some places and temperatures won’t go much higher from here. At least we area enjoying ineffective sunshine which takes a bit of the sting out of the late winter air but not much.

SATELLITE LOOP

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The satellite loop shows the powerhouse energy in the northern stream coming down in the Northern Plains with the southern energy strewn across all of the Gulf states to the Southeast coast. This is the beginning of what will be our major storm that will begin to develop along the east coast later Monday. Radars are quiet today and will remain quiet into Monday morning.

REGIONAL RADAR

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As far as how this storm plays out here is my timeline for snow.

SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE WASHINGTON DC BALTIMORE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON

SNOW MOVES INTO PHILADELPHIA SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA MONDAY EVNEING.

SNOW ARRIVES IN NYC AREA AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT

SNOW ARRIVES IN THE BOSTON AREA AROUND 7-8AM MONDAY

Once snow begins it will quickly become moderate to heavy at times with snow fall rates of at least 1 to 2 inches an hour. This will be a 12-15 hour event for the most part and will begin ending Tuesday morning in Southern areas and ending in NYC during the late afternoon or early evening and continuing in Southern New England to Boston into the early morning hours of Wednesday. This should be more than enough time for accumulation targets to be reached.

Blizzard conditions are likely along coastal areas from Coastal New Jersey north to Southern New England and moderate coastal flooding is possible at high tides due to the full moon that occurs tonight. The storm track and speed limits the number of problem tides to 2 tide cycles as we see it at the moment.

 

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Weather App

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