Snow Late Today & Tonight Northern Virginia to Southern New England
Winter Weather Advisory from Virginia to South Jersey, Including Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia is already up and will likely see it extended northeastward late today into tonight. This is NOT going to be a big deal for most area. A coating to a few inches is forecast by me and we feel fairly confident in the outcome. The one area where there could be a little upside surprise would be for the Eastern Half of Long Island and Eastern Connecticut eastward. Borderline temperatures are always problematic and Im thinking that colder surfaces will see the bulk of any accumulation and that paved surfaces will be mostly okay unless there is a heavier burst in the mix. Perhaps a few secondary roads get a little bit of a coating but that should be it from this.
The satellite and regional radar this morning actually have a rather impressive looking system moving eastward into Western Virginia and the radar presentation in particular is standing out with some heavy precipitation showing up in Southwest Va moving northeastward. We should be quiet here until late today and this evening as this area moves northeastward.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Snow or Rain develops this later this afternoon into early evening from South Central & Southeastern Pennsylvania northeastward to about NYC. Start times for Harrisburg will be around 2pm, Philadelphia around 5pm, NYC around 7pm, and around 10pm for Providence. The NAM model has this rather tight compact little low going by. Some of the northern stream energy seems to be getting involved a bit faster which is tucking this system in a little further to the north.
Due to the tenuous nature of temperatures near or just above freezing through this 6 hour event, i think that accumulations will be confined to colder grassy surfaces and perhaps if you get a bit of intensity, maybe on some paved surfaces especially east if NYC where snow continues into the early morning hours. A broad forecast for amounts of a coating to a few inches seems to be in order. This was my early call a few days ago and there is no change here. I would however point out that some upside is possible Eastern half of Long Island eastward.
All of this will be done with by midnight west of NYC and after 2 or 3am to the east. Weather conditions improve early Wednesday but we have a strong upper trough coming through and it could produce a few snow showers or a snow squall later in the day Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Once the trough passes it turns very cold for Thursday morning with lows in the teens to low 20s. Thursday look for some sunshine with highs in the 30s.
Friday begins a solid warm up with high pressure moving offshore and a west southwest wind. Some sunshine should take highs into the 50s. A cold front approaches on Saturday and this will send temperatures into the 60s in many areas with clouds and the chance for showers (and perhaps even a thunderstorm late Saturday into Saturday night.
Though it will be cooler Sunday and Monday, temperatures will continue to be above average into next week and there is another chance for rain or showers here late Monday into Tuesday.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.