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Snow Forecast Saturday 01142017

Snow Forecast Saturday 01142017

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Snow Forecast Saturday 01142017

Weather models are focusing on weak overrunning for Saturday. Earlier this week weather models were a bit more robust with this system but they seem to have backed off from a 1-3/2-4 inch snow. Only the NAM model at this point suggests that it could be along those lines. Little systems such as this always require some monitoring. There is not a lot of support aloft. The system is weak at all levels. Basically this is a weak wave that develops on the boundary to the south between cold air over us and to our north and warm air to the south. The cold high to the north acts as a suppressant and forces dry air further south and that seems to be the case here.

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It has been my feeling that this would be more a southern event than anything else. I may be a bit to far south on the southern end but we shall see how models take all this going forward. Meanwhile in the longer range, next week looks like we are in true January thaw mode with milder than average temperatures across much of the nation. It appears the weather pattern is in another transition stage and who knows where this winds up. My own feeling is that the pattern may go more “blocky” by the last week of January. Also it remains to be seen whether the upper air pattern in the Western part of North America changes. There are indications that this may happen but on the other hand we have been down this road before.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

          

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