Showery Rains On The Way Hurricane Watch Florida West Coast
Eta Heading Northward Strengthens
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Showery Rains On The Way Hurricane Watch Florida West Coast
Eta Heading Northward Strengthens
Today will mark an end to the flawless weather of the last 4 days with low humidity and record high temperatures. Clouds have already rolled in from the west as we have a cold front marching eastward. Brighter white higher cloud tops to the west extending from Northeastern NY southward into the Carolinas suggest an expanding area of showers with some heavy downpours in the mix.
SATELLITE
REGIONAL RADAR
Regional radar is surprisingly busy to the west and south as tropical moisture is surging up the Eastern Seaboard. Some of this was part of the tropical feed around Tropical Storm Eta over the weekend and that feed continues today across the Western Caribbean northward to the Bahamas and off the Southeast coast. Expect local radars below to start getting busy as the day wears on with rain overspreading the area from west to east during this afternoon, probably reaching the coast late in the day. Bear in mind that an isolated downpour could pop up anywhere at anytime before the main area of rain gets here.
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The Gfs model matches up better to the radar presentation we see at the moment versus the other models like the NAM for example which seems to have missed the extent of coverage this morning. The first surge plays through tonight into Thursday morning.
Two important changes in the outlook are going to make for a half way decent weekend. The front stalls out and notice that Tropical Storm Eta is now being shown to head into the Florida Big Bend and then off the Florida East Coast late Thursday. Eta gradually gets absorbed by the front. Getting it out of the way will mean that we will have lingering showers Thursday and notice a steadier rain continues from Southern New Jersey south to the Middle Atlantic states while the showers will be more scattered in nature in areas to the north. This continues on and off into Friday evening before weather conditions genuinely improve for the weekend. That is the second change. Eta going goodbye leaves nothing for any approaching systems in the flow over the weekend so an all day rain for Sunday into Sunday night is now off the table.
Temperatures will be cooling off as well as highs Thursday will be in the 60s though they will be leftover from overnight until the front passes and then temperatures will settle lower. Friday and Saturday highs will be just in the 50s. We should see some sunshine on Saturday and sun and clouds for Sunday. Sunday’s highs will also be in the 50s. Another cold front arrives with some showers Sunday night into Monday morning and that leads to an even colder air mass for a few days next week.
ETA STRENGHENS TO A HURRICANE AGAIN,
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HURRICANE WATCH FLORIDA WEST COAST
Eta is starting to feel like the storm that just won’t go away. While it doesn’t quite have an impressive looking structure latest recon reports show winds have reached hurricane force of 75 mph and the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Eta to a hurricane on the latest advisory. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown on the Florida west coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dry Tortugas Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida
7AM EST LOCATION…25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 170 MI…270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES
SATELLITE
REGIONAL RADAR
Regional and local radars are showing bands of heavy rain sweeping in from the southwest on to the Florida west coast. The center is also becoming visible on the southeast regional radar. Train has also advanced northward to north of Tampa and the area continues to climb up the coast.
LOCAL RADAR TAMPA FL
LOCAL RADAR KEY WEST FL
The Hurricane Center has recognized the change in the outlook produced by weather models since late yesterday and a steady north to northeast motion takes hold and it also starts to move a little faster. The question is whether Eta will maintain hurricane strength at landfall sometime early Thursday as wind shear issues will increase as Eta approaches the coast. Certainly a high end tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane is likely at landfall.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
Eta should bend to the east and come out the other side of Florida into the Southwest Atlantic Friday morning at which point it should be absorbed by the frontal boundary to the north that is bringing our rain for today into Thursday.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
