Severe Weather Threat Wednesday. Dorian Will Pass Southeast of Long Island Friday
What a beautiful day it was! Lots of sunshine, warm temperatures, not too unreasonable humidity all made a perfect combination for an early September day. Now come the next round of changes with another cold front approaching for Wednesday. Winds will be going around to the south southwest tonight so it will be a warm and more humid night with temperatures overnight mostly in the 60s. The satellite doesn’t show a lot of clouds around at the moment but there will be an increase overnight as we transition over to warmer and humid conditions for Wednesday.
Radars are still very quiet here this evening and we expect no issues overnight or for a good portion of the day Wednesday. Look for highs reaching the middle to upper 80s with some sunshine into the afternoon. Then watch for arriving showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a marginal risk of severe weather when the front passes.
The GFS shows the approaching front Wednesday afternoon, high pressure to the northwest and Dorian off the North Florida coast Wednesday afternoon. We have drawn what we think will be the forecast track for Dorian as it straddles the Carolina coastline with a landfall in the Outer Banks or just to the west southwest of there. Then it is northeast out to sea and toward nova scotia as a strong post tropical system at some point.
The GFS today describes a worst case scenario and is the furthest northwest. It would suggest a period of rain and some gusty winds late Thursday night into Friday morning but it would be nothing that would be problematic in my view. All the other weather models are far enough off shore that we see clouds and a bit of a breeze along the coast and nothing else. If this were to be correct, impacts will be minimal for coastal areas and hardly noticeable inland. So lets go for clouds increasing with some rain late Thursday night into early Friday before ending from southwest to northeast and temperatures in the 60s both days for highs. High pressure builds in for the weekend. Look for some sunshine and clouds Saturday with highs in the 70s and mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.