Beautiful Tuesday Severe Weather Risk Wednesday Dorian Pass Southeast Friday
After a day of watching Hurricane Dorian not move, thunderstorms, downpours, severe weather, and a tornado on Long Island, it is nice that today we have the opposite on all these factors. Beautiful dry air has moved into the Northeast & Northern Mid Atlantic states, there are no severe weather threats today (tomorrow is another matter) and Dorian has finally started moving if only at 1 mph this morning. We have nice clear skies on the satellite picture today. We should enjoy plenty of sunshine with moderate levels of humidity and highs reaching into the 80s, It should be a good day all the way around with no issues.
There is nothing to see on the radars today. We will start to see humidity going up as a southwest flow develops tonight. Look for some clouds to move in with most lows in the 60s. Wednesday we have the next cold front and with southwest winds ahead of it look for highs to reach the middle to upper 80s. We are going to see the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening and the Storm Prediction Center has us at a marginal risk for severe weather.
Once we get this cold front through we have the table set for Hurricane Dorian to move up the coast to the northeast. We have said from the beginning that the upper air pattern was not favorable for a storm to move northward all the away up the East Coast and impact the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic states in a serious way. The upper air jet stream set up in the Eastern US is simply not what you would see for a storm to move all the way up from south to north.
Thursday we will see increasing clouds with a northeast wind and highs will be in the upper 60s to at best low 70s. Then like a punter in a football the trough moving into the Great Lakes Friday takes Dorian and kicks it northeastward from the Carolinas like a winter storm that passes south and east of NYC and you look to see where the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield is going to be. In this case it looks like it makes briefly to Central New Jersey and Long Island..or perhaps just barely to the north of there before it all pushes away to the northeast. Gales will be over the coastal waters and could touch the coastal areas for a short time on Friday.
Areas just northwest of the coast will see little or nothing from Dorian as it goes by. The Great Lakes trough will energize this as Dorian morphs into something that looks more like a winter cyclone than a tropical one. The threat to Nova Scotia and New Foundland is on the table for later Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile a nice big cool high builds into the Northeast with lots of sunshine for Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be into the 70s and nights in the 50s. It will be a reminder that fall is not that far away.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.