Hurricane Watch Georgia South Carolina Coasts Dorian Stationary Over Grand Bahama
Hurricane Warning Florida Jupiter Inlet to the Georgia Border
In preparation for Dorian to being tracking up the East Coast, the National Hurricane Center has now issues a Hurricane Watch for the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. It will likely be extended to the coast of North Carolina on Tuesday. In the meantime Dorian has probably moved all of 5 miles today as it continues to batter Grand Bahama Island. They have been experiencing hurricane force winds for the last 24 hours and they may have another 24 hours to go of unrelenting winds and heavy rains. Add to that numerous high tide cycles, and torrential rains and you wonder what we will find there when the sun returns later this week.
The eye wall has become cloud filled probably due to an eye wall replacement cycle that is underway. With the storm barely moving upwelling of colder water and interaction with the islands (what ever is left of them) has caused Dorian to weaken from its peak winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 910 mb. The current winds are up to 145 mph and the pressure has risen to 940mb. Dorian is still a formidable category 4 hurricane.
Dorian probably won’t move much at all tonight or Tuesday morning but it should start moving northwestward later Tuesday with a turn to the north Wednesday and then to the north northeast on Thursday. This is the late afternoon NAM model view which is furtherest east of all the models today and keeps the hurricane far enough offshore of Florida and Georgia, get its close to the South Carolina coast Wednesday night/Thursday morning and then near the North Carolina outer banks Friday morning. Clearly it is close enough to warrant the watch for the Southeast coast. It will be more nail biting and we still have to get it past Florida and that won’t happen until Wednesday.
LOCAL RADAR MIAMI
LOCAL RADAR MELBOURNE
Meanwhile back to Dorian where the Miami and Melbourne Florida radars continue to show Dorian spinning on the edge of the radar range with spiral bands of heavy rain moving southwestward. The core of the hurricane however remains well offshore.
The tropics are spinning everywhere at the moment. Dorian is obvious. We have 4 other weather systems in the tropics that could become tropical depressions or tropical storms over the next 5 days. The wave in the Eastern Atlantic (3) looks like it is almost there with a broad circulation that just needs to tighten up a bit. Low pressure east of Dorian (2) and to the west (3) both have become better defined today and will be watched for signs of development.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.