Severe Weather Threat Sunday

Severe Weather Threat Sunday

Severe Weather Threat Sunday

Enhanced Risk Expanded Northward..

Now Covering Most Of New Jersey Southward To North Carolina..Including All Of Eastern Half Of Pennsylvania

Slight Risk New York City Western Long Island Hudson Valley

Marginal Risk Eastern Long Island,Western Connecticut, 

severe

 

As of 3pm The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has adjusted the risk are by extending the the enhanced risk area a little further north into Northern New Jersey. It extends south to cover all of Delaware, most of Eastern  Southeastern and South Central Pennsylvania south into Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. Slight risk has been expanded northward to include New York City Northern New Jersey and most of the Hudson Valley. Slight risk Eastern Long Island and Connecticut.

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Note that this covers the time frame from Sunday evening into Sunday night. The latest NAM model or at least on variation of the NAM model that handles these smaller scale events better has a fairly good illustration on how it should look tomorrow evening at 8pm

Severe Weather Threat Sunday

NAM MODEL SUNDAY EVENING 8PM

nam42 Severe Weather Threat Sunday

The Nam model shows a rather impressive looking line of thundertorms from South Central New York through Western New Jersey southward into Eastern Virginia. When you look at the nam at the 850 mb level (roughly 5000 ft) you can see the impressive jet stream that is show there tomorrow evening with winds of over 65 knots.

Severe Weather Threat Sunday

NAM MODEL SUNDAY EVENING 850 MB LEVEL

nam42 Severe Weather Threat Sunday

You can see in the red area across the Middle Atlantic States that this could be prime for super cells or tornadoes as per the Storm Prediction Center.

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North of Southern New Jersey the look is less imposing. The question for Long Island is whether there is going to be a lagging marine layer at the bottom of the atmosphere which always does a good job at shutting thunderstorms down as the move east of New York City.

Before these storms arrive there will be some rain to work through late tonight into Sunday morning as the warm front goes by. The we sit and wait with passing showers before the weather front begins its approach late Sunday afternoon in Eastern Pennsylvania and Sunday evening east of their and towards the coast.

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