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Severe Weather Threat Sunday Gulf States Very Serious

Severe Weather Threat Sunday Gulf States Very Serious

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Severe Weather Threat Sunday Gulf States Very Serious

severe weather

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is calling attention the day before to a serious severe weather threat Sunday for the Western Gulf States from East Texas through much of Louisiana. This is the new developing storm system that will bring more rain to our area later Monday night and on Tuesday. All the ingredients seem to be here for a serious outbreak of severe thunderstorms and possible supercell tornadoes as per the Storm Prediction Center. This is a quote from their discussion. It is written a bit in meteorological-ese.

Both mid and high-level southwesterly flow aloft will increase
   throughout the period as the upper trough moves northeastward across
   TX. The northward transport of moisture and instability will be
   aided by a broad, southerly low-level jet which will increase to 50
   kt by late afternoon and will shift eastward across the lower MS
   valley overnight. This will create strong, veering winds with height
   which will clearly favor significant severe thunderstorms including
   tornadic supercells, damaging bows, and quasi-linear convective
   systems. The severe threat is expected to begin by mid morning
   across central and northern Texas, and evolve/expand eastward
   through the rest of the period to near the Mississippi river by 12Z
   Monday.

What we have is a developing low with strong upper level support, a very strong southerly jet stream at low levels that will create an environment for a large outbreak of severe weather.

severe weather

You can see the NAM model view of this for Sunday evening as the low forms and thunderstorms develop in East Texas and Louisiana. The strong flow from the Gulf of Mexico is quite strong with winds of 40 to 50 knots at 5000 feet bringing in rich tropical Gulf moisture.

severe weather

The upper air trough here is very strong and it swings out of West Texas and the begins to lift northeastward. Eventually the severe weather will spread further east on Monday while a large area of rain develops to the north. That is poised to head our way (not the severe weather) for Monday night and Tuesday. This looks to be another 1 to 2 inch rain producer much like what just happened.

stormy pattern severe weather

With another potential 1 to 2 inch rain producer forecast by weather models at the end of the week, this could be the wettest 8 days we have seen here in quite a long time. That system has the potential to produce severe weather later this week in the Middle Atlantic and Southeast US. This is going to be a busy week for storm chasers.

 

 

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