Severe Weather Threat Late Thursday Memorial Day Holiday Weekend Forecast
The risk for severe weather continues for Thursday for much of our area. Nothing much has changed today regarding weather models and the next cold front arriving for late Thursday. Certainly there are no weather issues this evening. Some high clouds are out to the west and they will be moving in tonight. By morning a warm front will be setting up and trying to move through Thursday morning. There could be a scattered shower or thunderstorm when the warm front goes by but most of us won’t see anything other than clouds. Temperatures by morning will be in the 50s.
Thursday we will see dew points rise rapidly during the day across the area. The issue will be the warm front and how far east it gets. There will be more of a south wind across Southern New England, Long Island and the Jersey shore which might limit thunderstorms once they move far enough to the east. Just inland and points west and northwest this will not be an issue. Clouds with some sun will take temperatures to the 70s to near 80 while along the coast it will be in the 60s. Weather Models have different views regarding who gets what with regards to thunderstorms. The NAM favors Southern New England to NYC into Northern New Jersey.
One of short range models has a view that matches up well to the idea of the marine influence along the coast. The WRF develops strong storms in Pennsylvania that weaken once they reach the coast. If the warm air pushes further north than the NAM’s idea could be a better representation but for now I’m leaning to the WRF’s idea. The timing is during the late afternoon and evening.
On to Friday which should be mainly sunny with highs in the 70s so there are no issues for getaway day. As far as the holiday weekend goes, Saturday during the day should feature a mix of sun and clouds as another cold front approaches. We could have the same issues Saturday as we do for Thursday regarding the south wind along the coast with a better chance for thunderstorms as you head away from coastal areas for Saturday night into Sunday morning.Sunday is looking like a very warm day with some sunshine with highs in many places reaching the 80s including along the coast where the wind will be more from the west south west rather than the south. Another cold front arrives for Sunday night with the chance for thunderstorms yet again for much of the area. At least the daytime Sunday will be free of rain for the most part and we should have a mix of sun and clouds for much of the day.
Monday Memorial Day should be dry with some sunshine as that front will be to our south. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. It looks like Monday will be rain free from start to finish with the next chance of showers coming in on Tuesday as another warm front cold front combination begins to move in. The bottom line for the weekend is that for all three days the days should be dry and thunderstorm risks will be confined to Saturday night (after sunset) and Sunday night (also after sunset).
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.