Severe Weather Risk Thunderstorms Late Today Evening Memorial Day Holiday Weekend Outlook
We being this morning with an east west band of downpours. We are transitioning into a more humid air mass and setting up for a cold front approaching late today. How much sun and daytime heating will be critical to thunderstorm development. The severe weather risk per the Storm Prediction Center continues for late today into tonight. Every short term model has a different idea as to how this all plays out later today. It is likely to be a mix of individual cells developing that will be separated from other thunderstorms that will be in line form. This morning’s downpours could zap out some of the energy in the atmosphere which happens sometimes in situations like this.
Radar this morning shows this east west band of downpours playing out. Surrounding that area there is nothing much going on to the west and north so we should see rain free conditions into this afternoon as we attempt to go to a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 70s. Along the immediate coast, Southern New England & Long Island, a developing south wind means temperatures have a tougher time in the 60s.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Thunderstorms will roll through this evening. Threat time will be from 4pm to 10pm in general. The NAM model has a fair refection of one of the possibilities. Bottom line is the risk is there and now we watch and wait to see where and how the radar cells develop this afternoon.
On to Friday which will be a nice day with lots of sunshine, gusty winds and temperatures in the 70s. It will be a perfect getaway day with no weather issues if you are traveling for the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
Our outlook for the weekend remains unchanged and optimistic for the most part. The general weather theme for the weekend is that it is will be dry most of time and certainly during the day. Shower and thunderstorm threats will occur overnight Saturday night and again Sunday night. Monday will be a good day with sunshine after some early morning clouds. This actually is a very good outcome for a weekend that historically is NOT the best weekend when it comes to weather. Saturday we will see sunshine mixing with some afternoon clouds. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80 with 60s along the coast as there may be a south wind issue again.
Saturday night brings a cold front. It looks like showers and thunderstorms will be confined during the overnight period and be gone by daybreak. Sunday will be the warmest of the three days with sunshine and highs reaching the 80s in many areas.
Sunday night brings another front and another chance for showers and thunderstorms We might see some of those thunderstorms widely scattered during the day and a bit more numerous at night until the front passes. This sets up for a nice Memorial Day from start to finish.
Expect sunshine for Monday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Over the weekend if you are shore bound especially on Saturday, be prepared for much cooler conditions. Being on the beach probably means dealing with local sea breezes that will keep temperatures much cooler at the shore. Have a windbreaker handy just in case. Sunday might afford the best changes for limited sea breeze action.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.