Severe Weather Risks This Evening Saturday Sunday Look Good No Issues
After a day of serious daytime heating where highs reached into the 90s and dew points close to 70, we have a cold front and a weak upper trough moving through. That is setting off thunderstorms this evening. They are scattered around so you have to check the radars to see if one is close to your area. Most of the activity this evening is sliding down the Hudson Valley into Connecticut and Long Island. There are some cells west of the Hudson River moving south into parts of Northern New Jersey but they do thin out as you head to the west of the coast.
The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather this evening from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible as the radars are loading up now with thunderstorms on the regional and local radars moving southeast.
Some strong thunderstorms are developing in Southern New England and moving southward toward Long Island and points south. We see some thunderstorms also in the Hudson Valley and any one of these stronger cells could briefly become severe.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The latest HRRR model run shows thunderstorms are possible from now until midnight or so. Note that most of the storms south of NYC are widely scattered and not as strong as the ones to the northeast of NYC. Weather conditions will improve into Saturday morning.
Saturday offers a break from the heat and humidity of today with sunshine and highs that will be in the 80s with moderate levels of humidity. The dew points will drop down into the low and mid 60s. Enough dry air from the north will help things out slightly. The chances for a pop up shower or thunderstorm is very low.
Sunday will be a sunny hot and humid day with highs reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. There is the odd chance for a pop up shower or thunderstorm in isolated spots. The bottom line is that the thunderstorms around this evening are as widespread as they get so if you don’t get anything tonight, you should be fine for the weekend. There are no major changes in the outlook for next week and we will address them separately later tonight or on Saturday.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.