Severe Weather Risk Friday July 4th Holiday Weekend Summery
We have finally arrived at the July 4th holiday weekend and on the whole it is looking good with just some small interruptions in terms of time. Much of the weekend is rain free. Friday will probably be the hottest of the three days. Saturday the coolest (relatively speaking) and Sunday somewhere in between. As far as thunderstorms are concerned, Friday offers the best chance in the afternoon and evening and the Storm Prediction Center has our area at a marginal risk for severe weather.
More on the severe weather in a moment. Saturday looks like the one day where any showers or thunderstorms will be few and far between if at all. Sunday is going to see some scattered activity late in the day into Sunday night. Otherwise much of the weekend is find for any safe summer activity.
No doubt today was a beautiful day though hot. Humidity levels however were moderate thanks to last nights thunderstorms that rolled through some areas though not in others. The upper low is now weakened and moved off the coast near Cape Cold and the widespread activity of the last few afternoons is gone too. Some pop up showers are showing up on the regional and local radars but nothing that should last long and most areas will be dry.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Tonight will be a warm and somewhat humid night with most lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Friday will be hot and humid with some sunshine however it will be a little cooler north and east of NYC in Connecticut and the Hudson Valley as a back door cold front moves through Friday morning and stalls near the coast. South of the front it will be hot and humid with highs reaching 90 to 95 in many areas while north and east of the frontal boundary it will be in the low to mid 80s.
Friday afternoon as the cold front drops southward we will see some thunderstorms develop and with the front coming down from the north these storms will likely impact marine areas as well in a big way so do pay attention if out at the shore or out boating. Threat time looks to be after 2pm until about 7 or 8pm and the HRRR model has some rather robust looking cells moving through. Solid daytime heating and high dew points feed into a generally unstable atmosphere.
Once the front passes south weather conditions should improve Friday night. Saturday will be a little cooler and a touch less humid with some sunshine. Most highs will be in the 80s. It looks like few if any showers or thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon.
Sunday will be very warm and humid with some sunshine. We have another weak cold front dropping southeast across NY state and that will possibly trigger off some scattered thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon and evening but as we stated early much of the day should be fine. Highs will be in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Humidity will be moderate to start and then come up a bit as the day wears on.
Next week looks like more of the same with only the odd chances for isolated downpours or thunderstorms on any given day with very warm and humid conditions. Late next week an upper high will build into the Eastern US bringing a few days of heat with it. This looks to start on Thursday.
No important weather fronts are coming until perhaps next weekend. The tropics are quiet for the next 5 days. Enjoy the summer weather!
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PODCAST!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.