Severe Weather Risk Tuesday Rain Wind Cold Front
Severe Weather Risk Tuesday Rain Wind Cold Front
We can see the beginnings of the weather system and cold front out to the west with showers and thunderstorms breaking out from the Southeast US northwestward to the Ohio Valley. This is all from a strong cold front that is headed for the East Coast Tuesday and Wednesday. With a strong upper air disturbance swinging around to the Northeast Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has our area at a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.
It is a bit unusual to see a risk for severe weather this time of year but then again it is was a bit unusual to have an upper high pressure system sitting overhead for a week with nothing but sunshine. We will manage one more day of at least partly sunny conditions with highs in the 70s today before clouds come in tonight. We could see some spotty light rain or drizzle develop overnight in some places. The front will swing in from the west with rain developing during Tuesday morning from west to east.
The front will be very slow moving and there will be some heavy downpours and thunderstorms that will develop. The slow moving nature of the front will afford us the opportunity to pick up a fairly decent amount of rainfall around the area and the coast may do very well with this rain wise.
NAM RAINFALL FORECAST
We can only hope that the NAM model rainfall forecast above is right but actually all the models are fairly close to this idea with a 1 to 2 inch rainfall for most of the area. Of course this will be thunderstorm driven so there will be some variability in the amounts. Rain will begin to shift offshore by early Wednesday morning but it may take awhile for the downpours to clear the coastline. Much cooler air follows for a dry Thursday and Friday before another front swings in for the weekend.
Long range it is a rather active pattern we have ahead of us with lots of volatility as JOESTRADAMUS points out in his latest long range post.
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