heavy rain severe weather

Heavy Rain Severe Weather Strong Winds Tuesday

Heavy Rain Severe Weather Strong Winds Tuesday

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Heavy Rain Severe Weather Strong Winds Tuesday

We seem to be seeing reality outperforming weather models today across the South, Ohio Valley, & Midwest today with a very active radar this afternoon. A tornado watch is up for the Western Carolinas as a cold front swings around from the west southwest . This has brought in clouds and higher humidity across the area today but no rain is forecast into the first part of tonight. For now all the radar echos remain to the west and moving northward with just a slight eastward component.

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This is going to be a slow moving cold front because of the way the jet stream is set up. The trough is “negatively tilted (northwest southeast) which means that the eastward progress is going to be very slow. This means 2 things. Rain will be slow to move in and slow to move out. Tuesday we have a severe weather threat for most of the area with a slight risk for severe.

heavy rain severe weather

Some of the model guidance suggests the strongest thunderstorm activity we have seen even during the summer time. This means that thunderstorms will move into the Eastern half of Pennsylvania & New Jersey tomorrow morning but it may take most of the day to reach coastal areas of Southern New England and Long Island. Conversely the thunderstorms will move out of the western areas first but it may take all night and a good chunch of Wednesday for the rains to clear coastal areas. The result will be a substantial amount of much needed rain for most of the area.

HEAVY RAIN SEVERE WEATHER NAM FORECAST RAINFALL

heavy rain severe weather

 All the models seem to have a bullish outlook for rainfall with the NAM strongly bullish for a band of 2 to 4 inch rainfalls. Given the tropical moisture and the strong dynamics this is certainly possible though we know what happens around here with thunderstorms. This time around we have strong upper level dynamic support so somebody should get clobbered by heavy rains and flash flooding is going to be a distinct possibility especially for coastal areas. With the front slowing down to a crawl, those areas could be especially vunerable to an excessive rainfall.

 

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