Weather In 5, 5 Day’s In 5 Minutes
Severe Weather Risk Today Thunderstorms Nice First Summer Weekend
Flash Flood Watch continues this morning for almost all of New Jersey and Pennsylvania today. The threshold for flooding in these areas is very low due to some heavy downpours over the last several days. It hasn’t been evenly distributed across the region. Some areas have been hit harder than others. The last wave in a series of waves this week that has kept us in clouds, rain, downpours, thunderstorms, and flash flooding (in some places) is finally on the move.
This wave is the strongest of the 4 and it will rearrange the chess pieces in the atmosphere just in time for the first weekend of the summer season. This rearranging means severe weather risk and the Storm Prediction Center has much of our area at risk for Severe weather with NYC and the Hudson Valley on the northeast edge of it and then the risk increases from New Jersey and Pennsylvania southward into the Middle Atlantic States.
This morning it is about the frontal boundary which is now moving northward as a warm front. Unlike the last few days where the frontal boundary has been sitting across Central New Jersey and east west cutting Pennsylvania in half, the low to the west is forcing the warm front northward and this pushes the risk area for severe weather further north. The main threat time will be after 3pm this afternoon into the first part of tonight.
Keep your eyes on the radar. Do bear in mind that yes the risk for severe weather is there but that doesn’t guarantee severe weather or even that thunderstorms will impact the entire area. Right now what showers we do see are with the warm front moving northward.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Daytime heating today will be key. If we break out into some sunshine midday into this afternoon we could see temperatures climb up into the 80s in many locations with 70s to near 80 along coastal areas. This will help thunderstorm development if it materializes.
Once this cold front passes we will finally be on the road to weather improvement though there will still some leftover clouds and perhaps some leftover scattered showers Friday morning before we see decreasing clouds and increasing amounts of sunshine. Look for temperatures on Friday to be in the 70s to near 80. Gusty winds will develop during Friday bringing down cool Canadian air.
On to the weekend which is looking good. Saturday we will see plenty of sunshine with a gusty breeze and highs mostly in the 70s. The core of the dry air mass from Canada will be overhead Saturday night with a nice clear sky and most lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
Sunday brings a bit of a bounce higher in temperatures as a warm front begins to approach from the southwest. We should see sunshine for most of the day. Some high clouds could come in later in the afternoon or evening but other than that, we are going to see a good day. Temperatures should reach up into the 80s in most places and humidity will remain low.
Next week we will be seeing an entirely different kind of weather pattern. We won’t be returning to a stalled frontal boundary to the south. Instead it is a west to east pattern where systems move along for a change we will be dry much of the time with at least some sunshine each day and temperatures into the 80s. There may be the occasional chance for showers and thunderstorms along the way but they should be minimal and much of the time next week will be rain free!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.