Severe Weather Risk Flash Flood Watch Later Today Weather Conditions Improve Friday
This is the third consecutive day of severe weather risk across an almost identical geographic area. The set up in the atmosphere is pretty much the same as it has been. We have a stalled out frontal boundary that has been buckling every day. Waves from a deep trough in the west have made for very rough rounds of severe weather over Pennsylvania and New Jersey with less impact to the east across the Hudson Valley, Southern New England & Long Island. It
I could not remember in my 40 years of doing this seeing tornado watches for our area on back to back days. Now we could make it three in a row if the Storm Prediction Center sees conditions developing later today. The frontal boundary cuts right across the area this morning with low clouds fog and temperatures in the 50s on one side and in the 60s to near 70 as of 8am on the other. That should be the barrier and you will notice that the frontal boundary matches up very well with the boundary area of slight risk.
We are also concerned with the possibility of flash flooding now that we have seen several inches of rain in areas of New Jersey & Pennsylvania over the last 2 days making the threshold for flooding low. It won’t take much to set off flash flooding in thunderstorms. We are starting to see thunderstorms come into view of the regional radar.
Nothing is on the local radars this morning. Once again radars will light up this afternoon and evening so we watch and wait. In the meantime today plays out the same way as the last two. In the warm sector some sunshine takes temperatures into the 80s. Northeast of the frontal boundary it will be 60s with 50s along the immediate coast.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Look for thunderstorms between 4pm and 10pm from west to east from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. Each model today plays out differently so the approach will be the same as in past days. The risk is there. Beware of it and watch the radars and how they blossom this afternoon. Weather conditions improve overnight and we set up for a nice Friday of no rain, no thunderstorms, just sunshine. Highs will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday.
Let’s move on the the weekend. Saturday looks good during the day. The upper air pattern is shifting across the US to where the trough now shifts to the Eastern US. This will change the flow of weather fronts. Cold fronts will now be dropping down from the north with upper air winds coming out of East Central Canada. In the Plains and west the trough is gone and replaced by a ridge of high pressure aloft so the severe weather machine will be reduced in a big way or in many cases turned off. The next front approaches Saturday night. We will have sunshine most of the day Saturday.with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Saturday night we could see a few passing showers overnight. That wave in Northwest Ohio will head for Upstate NY Sunday. The cold front with it will bring the chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening. This is going to usher in a rather cool air mass for early next week. Sunday’s highs will be in the 70s to near 80.
Monday is going to be a very cool day with sunshine and clouds. Highs will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Tuesday we are going to see some sunshine and cool temperatures again as the core of that cool air mass from Canada heads our way. With the trough moving into the Eastern US we will see air mass changes every couple of days with cloud fronts and heat and humidity will be kept to a minimum.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.