Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Enhanced Risk Expanded Northward..

Now Covering Most Of New Jersey Southward To North Carolina..Including All Of Eastern Half Of Pennsylvania

Slight Risk New York City Western Long Island Hudson Valley

Marginal Risk Eastern Long Island,Western Connecticut, 

severe

As of 3pm The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has adjusted the risk are by extending the the enhanced risk area a little further north into Northern New Jersey. It extends south to cover all of Delaware, most of Eastern  Southeastern and South Central Pennsylvania south into Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. Slight risk has been expanded northward to include New York City Northern New Jersey and most of the Hudson Valley. Slight risk Eastern Long Island and Connecticut.

severe1 Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Note that this covers the time frame from Sunday evening into Sunday night. The late afternoon NAM model is a little more robust with the thunderstorm development and a shade slower. It also seems to hold on to some of the cells as they cross Western Long Island.

Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

NAM MODEL 8PM SUNDAY

nam30 Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

NAM MODEL 10PM SUNDAY

nam32 Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

NAM MODEL MIDNIGHT MONDAY

nam34 Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Today’s runs seem to get us deeper into the warm sector which would argue for more robust thunderstorm activity.

Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

There is a fairly strong low level jet at 5000 feet with winds to 65 knots streaming up the coast. For the coastal areas of Long Island the south wind will be key. How much marine layer influence will there be?

Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

NAM MODEL 10PM FORECAST RADAR AND WIND

severe3 Severe Weather Risk Expanded Northward

Or will the upper dynamics overcome the cooling at the bottom of the atmosphere? Water temperatures are now in the low 60s which is a little more supportive. My experience here is once the water temps get above 65, thunderstorms from the west tend to hold on stronger as they move from west to east. Inland it seems there will be some rough weather Sunday evening especially in Southern New Jersey given the model profile.

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