Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues

The warm front has moved through and now we sit and wait for the cold front front to swing by tonight. The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has adjusted the risk area to add much of upstate Central New York. Enhanced risk reaches New York City and covers much of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania southward through Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and North Carolina.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues

 Storm Prediction Center Outlook

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How extensive the severe weather threat is will depend on many factors especially along coast. One of the things we look at is the dew points. I like to look at where the dew points are above 65 and especially where the dew points are above 70. These high numbers reflect just how saturated the atmosphere is with rich tropical air.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues

Dew Points 9AM

dewpoints

As of 9am the areas inside the green area and particularly inside the red area are prime for severe thunderstorms. Northern New Jersey northeastward into Southern New England dew points are in the lower 60s and we will have to see how high those dew points get this afternoon.

Also key to this will be if we break out into sunshine for awhile today and add to the daytime heating. There is plenty of time for that to occur before thunderstorms get here this evening across the area.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Continues

Radar Loops

 

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storm free
storm free

You can see from the radars that we are in a bit of gap area for the moment and not much other than passing showers are going to occur from now until mid afternoon. We will of course keep you posted with developments as we go through the day. In the meantime you can at least enjoy some dry time before any thunderstorms occur. Again nothing of consequence should happen until late afternoon/evening in Eastern Pennsylvania/Western New Jersey Southwestward into Washington DC Baltimore area..and later this evening for New York City Long Island and Southern New England.

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