severe weather

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wednesday

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wednesday

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Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wednesday

After Saturday’s incredible severe weather outbreak which produced F-2 tornadoes in parts of Eastern Pennsylvania, we may have another severe weather threat setting up for Wednesday. It will be another roller coaster ride up in temperatures along the East Coast with highs in the 70s again possible in parts of our area with the best chances for the warm sector to set up in Southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey southward into the Middle Atlantic States. I think that the area may eventually be expanded further north.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY GFS 1PM TEMPERATURES

severe weather

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY

severe weather

This is the early forecast for Wednesday which is actually quite high in terms of the probability being indicated by the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service. Weather models show a very strong cold front pushing east.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE NAM MODEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT

severe weather

severe weather

The NAM has a slightly different solution than the GFS model but both models a very strong jet at 850mb (5000 ft roughly) with the GFS very impressive with 64-80 knot winds at that level coming up from the south.

severe weather

The NAM model’s timing is a bit different as it is slower with the storm moving across upstate NY and delays severe weather until overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning while the much faster GFS would argue for severe weather occurring sooner. We will work out timing issues as we get closer to Wednesday.

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