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We are at the early part of the spring where you usually see a battle between what is left of the winter profile of the atmosphere fighting against the natural heating process that takes us to the warmer months. In that turmoil everything from severe weather, to early heat, to late season cold, to even some snow. Such is the battle that is going on over the next week to 10 days. We touched on this in our Euro model discussion earlier today. Right now I want to focus on the path over the next few days. Along with the seasonal turmoil we have models doing different things in regard to the weekend and early next week
Seasonal Turmoil Continues GFS vs Euro Sunday Morning
The Euro model is the most aggressive and furthest south with Saturday nights developing storm off the New England Coast. The late afternoon GFS has shifted southward in the direction of the Euro which is something we need to pay attention to. This is setting up for a big wind event here Saturday night and Sunday morning. We will probably see gusts of 40 to 50 mph out of this much like we did two nights ago. With the arrival of the Arctic air, I would not be surprised to see a narrow band of snow when the front goes by.
The other issue is in regards to Tuesday. Here too the models have trended southward late this afternoon toward the Euro model idea. But remember with regards to this, it needs to snow at night for anything to stick. Frankly I’m not sure the atmosphere will be supportive at least along the coast and points south. But we will deal with that when we get there if we have to.
Seasonal Turmoil Continues GFS VS EURO MODEL TUESDAY MORNING
The Euro model is better defined and stronger with Tuesday’s weather system. This is not going to be a huge deal here from a total precipitation standpoint. If it is cold enough it could be a cheap thrill. I still want to wait until we are inside 84 hours to get more interested in this.
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