Saint Patrick's Day Sunshine #Foureaster Appears Nam Model

Saint Patrick’s Day Sunshine #Foureaster Appears Nam Model

Saint Patrick’s Day Sunshine #Foureaster Appears Nam Model

Saint Patrick’s Day Sunshine #Foureaster Appears Nam Model

Saturday beings with the luck of the Irish working quite well. We have lots of sunshine though there are some high clouds to the south. Low pressure is racing across the Middle Atlantic States and thanks to the strong storm that is sitting over New Foundland, it will have no impact on our weather at all today. Temperatures will be in the chilly 40s. There will be a gusty breeze at times so if you are parade bound today be sure to over dress a bit to keep warm.

US SATELLITE

storm free

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

Regarding that wave to the south we are seeing it move along this morning with precipitation entering the range of the regional radar view. The northern fringe of this rain could reach Southernmost Pennsylvania and Maryland and possible northern Delaware but that should be the northern most extent of it. Skies in South Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania could go cloudy for a few hours later this afternoon into tonight.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

storm free

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
storm free

There are no weather issues for the rest of the weekend with skies clear tonight and a mix of sun and clouds on Sunday. Sunday’s highs are in the low to mid 40s. Monday looks good to with sunshine as high pressure builds down from Central Canada. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s.

#FOUREASTER NOW IN NAM MODEL RANGE

I’ve had been saying for the last few weeks that while the NAM model has clearly outperformed just about every model out there, now that everyone knows this, it is probably going to stop working. Virtually all of the ovrenight global models show this storm to pass south of NYC with the northern edge of snow getting to Central New Jersey Route 195 and no further north than that. The NAM stands alone at the moment (with support from the SREF plumes) with a system further north and a bit deeper.

NAM MODEL FORECAST #FOREASTER 2PM MARCH 17, 2018

The upper air jet stream is an absolute mess at the moment with so much energy running around it is hard to figure how this is all going to play out. In fact this is about as messy and upper air pattern that I have seen in a very long time.

NAM MODEL TUESDAY MARCH 20, 2018

All of these short waves lead to an incredibly sloppy set up so it makes weather models (including the NAM) harder to trust. I would expect more model changes through the weekend before things start to settle into a common solution for Tuesday and for any second wave action on Wednesday. Frankly I think the second wave idea is a bit of a long shot. It seldom happens that we get two waves back to back but this has been a strange month so I won’t completely toss that option out.

 

GET JOE A CIGAR IF YOU LIKE 

 

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

JOIN JOESTRADAMUS ON YOUTUBE!

LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE

LONG ISLAND WEATHER

NEW YORK WEATHER

Liked it? Take a second to support joestradamus on Patreon!