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Rain Thunderstorms Friday Night Saturday Showers Linger Easter Sunday
We are watching clouds coming in from the west on the US satellite loop. This is a weak disturbance that will be moving through tonight with some light rain overnight into Wednesday morning. The disturbance is going to be weakening as it moves eastward so rainfall amounts should be light. Most of the rain should fall between 10pm and 4am Wednesday and it should be gone before daybreak. Temperatures overnight will settle in the 40s with some chilly spots north and west of the coast dropping to the upper 30s. Out west we can see the next storm system that is going to develop in the Southern Plains and march very slowly eastward. This is our system for Friday night and on Saturday.
Tonight’s weak disturbance is showing up on the regional radar as rain moves into Pennsylvania and pushes east southeastward. It is a very narrow band of rain about 100 or so miles wide so it is quite possible that areas 50 miles north of NYC and 50 miles south of NYC see very little out of this.
We should see clouds give way to sunshine on Wednesday though sometimes these systems can be tricky. Clouds should shift southward during the day only to come back northward late in the day into Wednesday night so hopefully we get some sun in between with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Then we will begin the transition over to a more humid air mass and a developing southerly flow along the East coast. Clouds and a few showers will be around later Wednesday night but should be gone by Thursday morning. Then clouds will be around with some sun possible just south of the warm front which will cut across Northern New Jersey, NYC & Long Island. Areas north of the frontal boundary will be in the 50s to near 60. Central and South Jersey & Southeastern Pennsylvania have a chance to see temperatures reach into the 70s if the sun succeeds.
Now let us move on the Friday and the Easter Weekend which at this moment is not looking especially promising. A deep upper trough is going to move into the Ohio Valley and set up a strong southerly flow along the East Coast.
This dynamic system is showing up on all the models and they are all very close in the depth and locaton so we feel fairly confident that this will be playing out. The surface low will be tracking northward up the Appalachians because this upper air storm will be lifting very slowly to the northeast. Someone is going to get clobbered with heavy rains and some thunderstorms from this.
With the low tracking northward it is likely that the heaviest rains will be west of the coast where a widespread area of 2 inches of more is likely. Along the coast with the rain more showery in nature there will be more variability in the rainfall amounts. Early model forecasts are in the 2 to three inch range from Western New Jersey westward with less to the east.
With the upper low lingering into Sunday it creates an issue regarding scattered lingering showers along with clouds. The good news is that the strong system weakens as it moves northeast so this could keep shower activity to a minimum and keep it more inland than at the coast. Some sun could break through the clouds Sunday in this sort of scenario.
This is how it plays out for Friday. South southwest winds will be rather gusty, we will see clouds with some breaks of sun and temperatures reaching into the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will move in Friday night and continue into Saturday afternoon before the cold front swings through. Right now it would seem the threat for severe weather will be from Southern New Jersey southward into the Middle & South Atlantic states but we will watch this closely as there is a chance we could wind up with the northern fringe of severe weather further north. We should get a break in the rain later Saturday afternoon with clouds and lingering scattered showers for Sunday. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be mostly in the 60s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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