Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 Major Storm Scenario Northeast
Potential Tropical Cyclone 18
Major Storm Scenario Northeast
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found a closed circulation and 40-45 knot winds on the west side of low pressure in the Caribbean. But the circulation remains broad. We have Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 and it is moving toward the north. Satellite loops this afternoon show the system becoming better organized as it moves toward the north.
On the Eastern US satellite loop you can see the rotation in the Western Great Lakes moving slowly east. This system will be pulling what could be Philippe northward. The European model absorbs Philippe into a developing low off the Southeast Coast of the US and then intensifies it into a strong major storm as it moves up the East Coast. This is the difference with the European model verses the other models which keep Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 as a separate entity. This causes the models to key on two lows rather than 1 creating alternate tracks and outcomes.
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 415 MI…670 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long
Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas,
Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is
expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system
will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the
northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm
tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly to the south of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS
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