Major Storm Sunday & Sunday Night Nice Saturday

Everything remains on course for Sunday & Sunday night regarding low pressure moving up the East Coast. Weather models overnight were fairly consistent with the idea of a major storm developing along the North Carolina coast, moving northward and intensifying. In the meantime we are going to squeeze out a good day today with sunshine giving way to arriving clouds. To the west a cold front is evident from the Eastern Great Lakes southward to the Central Gulf of Mexico. South of there we have potential tropical cyclone 18 coming out of the Northwest Caribbean and heading for Western Cuba and then Northeast to the Bahamas. All of this sets up a complex scenario for Sunday.

SATELLITE LOOP

REGIONAL RADAR

We are beginning to see showers from the cold front moving into Western Pennsylvania and they will continue to inch slowly eastward. There are no radar issues for us today but some showers will being to develop overnight.

MAJOR STORM GFS MODEL

MAJOR STORM EUROPEAN MODEL

Both the European and the GFS model are very close as the European has been remarkably stubborn with this all along regarding track. This is going to move quickly so from that standpoint it will probably prevent most areas from seeing crazy rainfall amounts. but some 2 to 3 inch rains are possible. The heaviest rain will be along and west of the track with the strongest winds to the east at least on the first pass. Once the storm center moves into upstate NY Sunday night and winds shift to the northwest, everyone will see winds of 20 to 35 knots with higher gusts and coastal areas will see gusts in the 40-50 knot range.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

NYC LONG ISLAND HUDSON VALLEY CONNECTICUT

HIGH WIND WATCH POSTED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING

From the stand point of wind be advised that the strongest winds on the first pass will along and off the coast. Some wind gusts over the Eastern Half of Long Island & Coastal Connecticut could reach 50 knots or higher. There will not be as much wind west of the storm track will be right along or just east of the New Jersey shoreline.