european model

European Model Paints Stormy Scenario With Major Storm

European Model Paints Stormy Scenario With Major Storm

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European Model Paints Stormy Scenario With Major Storm

As we draw closer to Sunday’s event there is still some confusion among models in terms of the structure of this storm and how it is all going to evolve. To add more confusion to the mix and Air Force Plane is enroute to investigate low pressure developing in the Northwest Caribbean which has shown an increase in organization today. In spite of all this the European model remains steadfast it its view of Sunday and Sunday night’s major storm forecast to develop off the Southeast coast of the US and then head straight northward just inland of the coast into upstate NY as a major storm.

EUROPEAN MODEL SUNDAY MORNING 8AM

european model

The low tracks from southeast of Charleston South Carolina at 8am to near or just west of Cape May New Jersey by Sunday evening 8pm. From there it runs northward to just east of Lake Ontario near my favorite fishing spot Pulaski NY.

european model

The European refuses to let go of the very strong upper air structure of this system where the upper trough lifts completely up and around forcing the surface storm to intensify rapidly.

EUROPEAN MODEL UPPER AIR JET STREAM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CLICK TO ANIMATE

european model

Given the persistence of the model and the solid dynamics we are going to experience rather rocky conditions in most of the area. Most of it will be manageable however there will be some areas that will get hit harder than others. Along and east of the storm track and given the rapid movement of the surface low, winds will be stronger east of the low center track on Sunday. By Sunday evening southerly winds will increase to 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts. West of the low track rain will be the bigger issue with 2 to 3 inch rainfalls likely though the speed of movement will keep rain amounts from getting overly excessive.

european model

 

european model

The above maps shows forecast wind gusts on the European for Monday morning 5am Eastern Time. Special thanks to WEATHER.US for use of the maps

Once the low tracks to our north into upstate NY winds will shift to the west and northwest and we will see strong winds later Sunday night into Monday afternoon on the order of 20 to 35 knots with gusts of 50 kts or higher along coastal areas.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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