Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

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With all the models in for the afternoon with the exception of the Euro Model (it will be done by 3pm) there is still not much clarity on how things evolve regarding a noreaster threat later this week. We can say that the week appears to be a gloomy one overall with lots of clouds, an onshore flow, and occasional rounds of rain. The northern half of this rain area today did not hold together and rainfall amounts in general were under a quarter of an inch in most areas. This longer term trend of models over performing reality continues so we need to bear that in mind as we watch what happens during this coming week.

Both the gfs model and the Canadian weather model show a dynamic upper air system heading for the Middle Atlantic Coast. The GFS is actually quite impressive with this. It brings the upper air storm to the coast and then very slowly moves it away to the east and a system upstream is shown to come down and kick it along. All the while the surface system that develops seems to rotate around it before it all moves away offshore by next Sunday.

Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

GFS UPPER AIR FRIDAY

gfs120

Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

Canadian Upper Air Friday

gem120

Yet with all this energy there are some things that are not quite right. For one thing the model picks out several low pressure areas and can’t seem to decide which one is the more dominant feature. This results in weak surface lows with not really much rain with each, and not much of a pressure gradient either so other than the fact that we will be in clouds and occasional rain, this is going to be not much of a big deal. The Canadian takes a low off the Middle Atlantic Coast and just kicks it out to the northeast and done.

Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

GFS SURFACE MAP FRIDAY & SATURDAY

gfs120 Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

gfs144 Noreaster Threat Late Week Still Unclear

You can see on the GFS model that the surface low is pretty much in the same spot Friday and Saturday mornings and again not much rain. There is some wind but more of it offshore than onshore. So from a forecast standpoint here we are left with uncertainty at a lot of levels. Certainly we do not have the Euro model’s look from several runs ago which showed a huge low sitting just offshore and pounding the coast. This is not to say that it still can’t happen. On the contrary, the ingredients remain in place for a more developed system for the end of the week. We have to at this point continue to wait to see how models resolve all the dilemmas and issues. The Euro model is beginning shortly to tell its story. Last night’s model backed off on the strength so lets see if it backs off yet again.

 

 

 


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