Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook

Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook
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Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook

Still Uncertainty Regarding Late Week Noreaster

With regards to the week ahead the gloomy gray conditions will continue with only minor interruptions. The onshore flow off the ocean and the trough in the Eastern United states pretty much guarantee that. We will also have continued threats for rain though how they play out specifically remain to be seen. The Euro model like the GFS model and the Canadian model all continue to show a lot of upper air energy moving toward the Middle Atlantic States however the Euro model has backed off from the extreme solution it showed 2 days ago and even yesterday.

Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook

Yesterday’s Model Surface Forecast Friday May 6th

euro144 Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook euro120 Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook
The surface maps above are from model runs of Yesterday and Friday night. Friday night’s model run showed what would be an intense noreaster just offshore for late this week. Since then we have seen the Euro model back away from this idea. The map below shows today’s idea of a much weaker low off the Delmarva Peninsula.

Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook

Today’s Forecast Friday May 6th

euro120 Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook

As we addressed yesterday the biggest question would be the upper air pattern and how the strong upper low and jet stream react when they hit the east coast. Take a look here at yesterday’s upper air forecast vs today’s

Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook

Euro Model Upper Air Yesterday & Today

euro120 Euro Model Continues Gloomy Outlook

euro120

The biggest difference in my opinion lies in Eastern Canada where there is a large vortex present there. This doesn’t allow enough room for the intense southern feature to lift up and around. Instead it appears to be somewhat more “progressive” in nature. Notice the tilt is northeast southwest verses yesterdays as that run had the upper feature standing alone it all its glory. These subtle differences make a huge difference in how much surface development an occur. Today’s run essentially spreads the energy around more verses yesterday’s which has it solidly concentrated around a developing low just offshore. The result is a much more diffuse, less intense feature on today’s runs and the trend has been in that direction over the last 2 days.

Should the Euro model be literally correct today it would mean some wind, some rain, and some coastal flooding (New Moon Friday) but it would not be anything unmanageable. What we will have to see from here on is whether the models are correct with what is happening in Eastern Canada. I prefer to wait at least a few more runs of all the models before reaching any conclusions. Right now I would say the threat for a noreaster remains on the table and leave it at that until we get a little closer. Either way we will still have to deal with a pretty gloomy grey weather week.

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