Noreaster Begins Sunday Night
Noreaster Begins Sunday Night
Weather models overnight all seem to be close in terms of what is going to happen in the broad sense regarding this Noreaster. This is how I believe it will break down in terms of timing.
Rain begins to move from Southern New Jersey to Southern New England beginning during Sunday afternoon and reaching northern areas of this zone later Sunday evening.
Gale force winds will begin along the coast Sunday evening and will strengthen on Monday. Winds along the coast will be every bit of 40 to 50 mph with higher gusts from coastal New Jersey to Coastal Southern New England and Long Island.
Snow and sleet will be significant north of Route 84 and it will be elevation driven. The Nam generates snow and sleet accumulations south of Route 84 but I think that will be also elevation driven. These maps carry us through Monday evening. Conditions will be quite poor into at least early Tuesday.
Rainfall will be on the order of several inches and will go a very long way to denting the long term rainfall deficits which are sitting around 1 foot over the last 13 months. The deficit has not gotten any worse since November 2016.
From the standpoint of coastal flooding, the moon cycle is not in an unfavorable position. Track of the storm as forecast could create significant coastal flooding Monday into Tuesday. Also we have been basically in an onshore flow for the last several days and that will start up again on Sunday. Moderate coastal flooding to me seems likely and it could be worse than moderate however we need to wait and see where this goes in terms of track and strength over the coming days. At the moment the Storm Surge model is forecasting 2 to 3 feet with an area of 3 to 4 feet along the central New Jersey coast.
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