Nice Weather Gives Way To Arriving Clouds Thursday Coastal Storm Offshore Chilly Weekend
We are enjoying a rather lovely afternoon of sunshine and temperatures in the 50s. Cloud free conditions cover most of Northeast Virginia to Southern New England. There are no issues for the rest of the day. We do have a weak cold front that will be moving through tonight. That front is producing some clouds to the west in Pennsylvania and Ohio. We are even seeing some scattered showers moving into Western Pennsylvania. If those showers hold together tonight, it is not impossible that a few spots will see some showers but they should be scattered at worst.
Once the front passes tonight skies should clear out by morning with lows in the 30s in most places. Thursday look for sunshine giving way to some arriving clouds as two weather systems head our way. One will be moving across the Great Lakes while the other comes out of the Gulf States where we are seeing severe weather occurring from Southeast Texas to Southern Georgia and Florida this afternoon. Thursday’s highs will be in the upper 40s to some lower 50s.
The problem when dealing with two separate jet streams is where and when will the phasing together will occur or will it never occur and the two streams stay separate? In this situation for the end of the week, the phasing takes places when the southern system is well offshore and this keeps any major precipitation out in the ocean.
When the phasing takes place the Great Lakes low disappears and it is all about the coastal low. Clearly with everything offshore there are no major issues. In fact the only thing to worry about later Friday into Saturday are a few passing rain or possibly snow showers in colder areas. Neither amount to much. Otherwise we will see clouds and windy conditions Friday with highs in the low to mid 40s. Saturday will be chilly with gusty winds and some sunshine. Highs will be just into the 40s in most places.
Sunday begins a warm up as high pressure moves off the South Atlantic coast and we get into a return flow from the west south west. We should rebound quickly into the 50s on Sunday with sunshine. Monday will be nice and warm with highs reaching the 60s everywhere and if we get enough sun, 70 degrees is not impossible in some areas.
Later next week weather models all seem to be zeroing in on a major system of some sort in the Eastern part of the US however even though the GFS once again shows some sort of mega snow storm let me point out a few things. First is the fact that it has done so many times this winter and like Ralph Kramden of the Honeymooners, it is batting 1000…it has been wrong every time! Why is it different this time? Well it isn’t different this time. The overall weather pattern remains very much the same as it has been.
The upper air is very much the same as it has been for over 2 months. Cold air remains locked away in the Arctic with no pathway southward. The upper trough is mostly in the west. The flow from the Eastern US to Western Europe remains in “firehose” mode. In other words the flow across the Atlantic is straight west to east and fast. There is no blocking whatsoever. Basically it boils down to nothing happening unless streams of energy time perfectly. I doubt seriously that it will suddenly be different this time around. The days of winter dwindle down to a handful with spring now less than 2 1/2 weeks away.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.