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NAM Model Analysis On Developing Noreaster

NAM Model Analysis On Developing Noreaster

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NAM Model Analysis On Developing Noreaster

Today’s late afternoon NAM model run illustrates the issue regarding the problem for Sunday night into Tuesday. All weather models are pointing to a noreaster developing with strong winds and heavy rains beginning Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday afternoon. However there are a few issues  to consider.

NAM MODEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON

nam model

The NAM model from above shows on the last frame early Monday morning 1am the effect of some cold air bleeding southward from Eastern Canada. This is a situation where there is no real arctic air and the atmosphere from bottom to top is in a borderline state. Small scale factors will play a role. Intensity of precipitation and vertical motion in the atmosphere will effectively cool things down in some areas. This is why the NAM shows an area of snow and sleet on the northern fringe of the precipitation.

nam model

That lead wave and whether it maintains identity is important in what happens with this event. If the lead wave holds itself it will drag down more cold air. I still think that cold air getting south to the coast is a long shot but it is a more critical question for inland areas as you go north, northeast and northwest.

NEW NAM MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE

nam model

The new NAM model brings rain in faster on Sunday and it has rain going to snow/sleet inland north and northwest of route 84.  We can’t see what happens after Monday morning. Regardless of any snow/sleet issues, the noreaster issue continues with strong winds and heavy rains for Monday. We wait now for the other models as they come in over the next few hours.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

          

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