Memorial Day Weekend Looking Okay
Tropical System Remains South
Looking at all the weather model guidance this afternoon it seems to me that the Memorial Day Weekend Looking Okay is the best description. It won’t be picture perfect but for the most part the entire three days will be dry. The biggest question will be occasional clouds and a shower or thunderstorm chance in the afternoon and evening. Other than that I think that most of the time it will be fine and you should go ahead with outdoor activities.
Memorial Day Weekend Looking Okay GFS Model Sunday
Friday and Saturday evening we will see the chance for a late shower or thunderstorm with the best chance away from the coast. It is the sort of thing where some will see one and others won’t. Sunday morning we see a weak frontal boundary cutting across New York City and Long Island. There is not much too this. The high to the north is weak. The frontal boundary will probably shift northward as the day wears on. So the only issue to me will be some clouds. Even the chance for a shower or thunderstorm will be minimal on Sunday verses the other 3 days. Also the tropical system on the GFS at this point is sitting off the South Carolina coast. This is very early for a tropial system to develop and water temperatures remain borderline for support. However the upper air profile off the southeast coast of the United States is favorable or at least not unfavorable for development.
Memorial Day Weekend Looking Okay GFS Upper Air Shear
Upper air winds way up in the upper atmosphere are fairly light. Wind shear is unfriendly to tropical storms. Think of taking shaving cream and making a pile of it and then putting a fan next to it. The shaving cream gets blown away. Wind shear essentially rips the tops of any thunderstorms and blows them apart. This prevents intensification and in fact if the shear is strong enough causes weakening.
Now from there the question is whether that moisture moves up the east coast and the upper air flow would argue against this.
Memorial Day Weekend Looking Okay Upper Flow Monday Night
The upper flow is rather weak and the stronger westerly flow aloft lies just to our north. It would seem there is a higher chance that the tropical system could get lost in that weak flow to the south rather than take the option of moving northward. Also the lack of any upper air energy to interact with this suggests that even if turned northward, not much of it would be left of it other than a core of showers and thunderstorms. For now we think this is a non issue for us.
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