major storm

Major Storm Threat Continues For Sunday

Major Storm Threat Continues For Sunday

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Major Storm Threat Continues For Sunday

The in between model runs during the late afternoon always tend to hiccup in one direction or another and it seems that was the case this afternoon. The new model cycle run has begun and we are seeing models lining up well with the ones from midday Thursday which painted a rather stormy picture for Sunday. That cycle was led by the European which brought a major storm northward just inland of the coast for Sunday afternoon and night. Let’s begin with the new NAM model run tonight which has a very strong major storm threat from Coastal New Jersey to New England.

MAJOR STORM THREAT NAM MODEL SUNDAY 8PM UPPER AIR JET STREAM

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MAJOR STORM THREAT NAM MODEL SUNDAY NIGHT SURFACE MAP

CLICK TO ANIMATE

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The NAM surface maps for Sunday night (click to animate) shows the storm heading for the East End of Long Island intensifying along the way. Winds there could gust past 60 mph if the NAM verifies. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches or more are being indicated as well for a large area.

MAJOR STORM NAM RAINFALL TOTALS

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The GFS model came back somewhat but it seems to take longer to lift the trough out and would shift the main action more from Southern New England northward. The intensification takes place a bit later than the NAM or the day side European.

MAJOR STORM GFS MODEL SUNDAY NIGHT CLICK TO ANIMATE

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Obviously we are going to have to wait for the European to see if it holds firm on its track just inland of the coast as a major storm. That model doesn’t come out until after 2am. We will wait until morning to figure this puzzle out.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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