Major Storm Rain Snow Coastal Flooding Winds Friday into Saturday AM
Major Storm Rain Snow Coastal Flooding Winds
Friday into Saturday AM
No doubt we are in for a rough couple of days beginning Thursday night as the first rains arrive. Low pressure heading into the Ohio will hit that huge blocking high to the north and be forced to redevelop rapidly off the Delaware Coast. The rapid development of the coastal low will create stormy conditions Friday and Friday night from Southern New England to the Delaware coast. Rain will be heavy and then comes the complication of strong upper air dynamics creating cold air. This means the rain will change over to wet snow in many areas. The question of where and how much snow however remain very difficult at this point. Certainly elevated areas in Northern New Jersey, Northeastern Pennsylvania and the Hudson Valley west of the Hudson River could see heavy snow and some amounts in these areas could be rather excessive. Even areas in Western & Southwest New Jersey could see a slushy few inches if dynamics set up in a certain way. Areas to the east of NYC will have to deal with warm air getting swept in westward from off the ocean to some degree which may overcome the cold strong upper air dynamics. However even in these areas it could be quite the struggle.
NAM MODEL FRIDAY EVENING
The map above is the NAM model for Friday evening with the coastal storm off the Southern New Jersey coast. By 7PM the NAM model which is the coldest of all the models has the snow lining up west of New York City. The model is very bullish with snow amounts but we think this could be somewhat overdone though not impossible.
NAM MODEL SNOW FORECAST
We will be putting together our snow maps later today and National Weather Service snow forecast maps will be out and updated later today. Rainfall will be substantial as well with many areas receiving 2 to 3 inches.
NAM RAINFALL FORECAST
Regarding winds they will be their strongest on Friday into Friday night with gusts to 50 mph or more common along the New Jersey Coast and especially over Central & Eastern Long Island. Coastal flooding will be moderate to possibly major in some places with tides running 2 to 3 feet above normal. The highest tide should be the Friday evening high tide. We have a full moon Thursday night so tides will be running high as it is.
NAM SUSTAINED WIND FORECAST FRIDAY EVENING
Precipitation in what ever form should be over with by Saturday morning before daybreak. Winds will continue on Saturday with clouds hopefully giving way to some sunshine at some point.
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