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Long Range Weather Still Active Through Mother’s Day
It is nice that we are still catching a break in the seemingly endless flow of weather systems. We had a nice day today with well deserved sunshine. A weak disturbance aloft is moving through this evening with a few clouds. You can see it on the satellite picture over the Catskills and Poconos and I suppose a spot shower can’t be ruled out inland this evening. Otherwise skies will clear out tonight and temperatures will not fall far. Lows by morning will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tuesday is still on course with sunshine into the afternoon before a cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80 though it will be cooler at the shore. There is a chance for a shower or a thunderstorm tomorrow evening before the front sinks to our south.
The curse of the onshore flow returns Wednesday with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. This is going to be a situation where the cloud line will try and sink southward and lie somewhere near or south of NYC for at least part of Wednesday. Partly sunny skies are possible at least for awhile especially in Northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, and Long Island while clouds will likely dominate south of these areas. By Wednesday night clouds will be moving in and the onshore flow strengthens. Thursday it is an ocean wind, overcast skies and some patchy light rain or drizzle. Highs will likely just be in the 50s.
The warm front starts moving northward Thursday night with rain drizzle and fog. Does the warm front push through or does it struggle? It looks like it makes for most of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania and points south. This brings 70s to near 80 degree temperatures in these areas and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. To the north of the warm front a round of heavy rain Friday morning and then if the front passes, watch for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 60s.
The upper air pattern Wednesday night continues to show the blocking upper high over Greenland into Labrador and a series of short wave troughs coming out of the west. This creates the issues for the end of the week for us as described above but it also sets up issues for Mother’s Day. Saturday should be okay with some sunshine and highs into the 70s. However changes in the upper air create an opportunity for rain arriving later on Sunday Mother’s Day.
While the block weakens an upper low strengthens north of Lake Superior. A trough comes into the east and sharpens up. Look for a cold front to approach with a wave possibly developing on it. Timing could be an issue. It would seem at this early stage that there is a chance that the first part of Sunday starts with sunshine and arriving clouds and rain holds off until late in the day. The European model shows the upper low dropping southward into the Ohio Valley setting up an onshore flow and rain developing as the day wears on. Either way it appears that Mother’s Day could be in jeopardy to some extent. The blocking has been formidable and if the blocking high over Greenland/Labrador holds on stronger, the wetter and gloomier European could have the better idea. It is still early in the game here. The GFS has been guilty of getting rid of that upper high to the north. It might be wrong again. We shall see.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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