long range indices

Long Range Indices Remain In Flux

Long Range Indices Remain In Flux

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Long Range Indices Remain In Flux

We continue to look ahead to the next few weeks as the upper air pattern continues to resemble a chess board with pieces moving around. Some of the pieces of the puzzle regarding the second half of the winter are moving into a position that supports the idea of a cold an snowy second half. Others are not there yet. First off I want to look at the system for Sunday into Tuesday.

CANADIAN MODEL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

long range indices

The Canadian model and the German Model and to a lesser extent the European model seem to be responding to the tele-connection indices which are trying to move into a favorable position for snow for at least the interior of the Northeast.

LONG RANGE INDICES NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION FORECAST

long range indices

The North Atlantic Oscillation is dropping from a weak positive position to a weak negative position early next week which would favor a colder solution. The problem is that it is not negative enough. The Pacific North America index is bouncing off a deep negative reading, however it is not bouncing enough.

LONG RANGE INDICES PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA INDEX

long range indices

Unless we see the NAO tank deeper into negative territory and the PNA rise at least to the neutral zone, it would seem that the system for Sunday/Monday would be rain. In fact the European/GFS don’t have much of an upper air trough with this while the Canadian has a much more developed system coming east. For now we will discount this idea and just go for some rain or showers Sunday into Monday.

This then leads us to the East Pacific Oscillation or EPO which is forecast to drop deep into negative territory and today’s models actually show the drop to negative even deeper.

LONG RANGE INDICES EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION

long range indices

The strong negative reading on the EPO would be bullish for colder weather going into February in the East however the Pacific North America index in a strong negative position is an issue. The negative value of the PNA suggests not enough ridging in the western US/Canada and the ridge is at least for now a bit too far west off the US West coast.

GFS JET STREAM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 3 2018

long range indices

My own feeling on this is that while we may see a return to a colder pattern (unlike those who have already proclaimed the arrival of deep freeze part 2) I am taking a wait and see approach to this. Pattern changes are grinding processes as I have said many times. If the ridge stays out off the West Coast and there is no blocking of consequence from the North Atlantic, then we will see shots of cold air moving into the United States and into the East but they may not have much staying power. Will the ridge off the West Coast shift eastward over time? It certainly could. We have to continue to basically watch the longer term pattern evolve just like we did in late November early December. These things take time. The East Pacific Oscillation says cold and snow. Now we wait to see whether the Pacific North America index can trend in that direction.

 

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