Long Range Active Cool Start to June

Long Range Active Cool Start to June

Trough Sets Up In The East

Whether you technically had a heatwave or not really depended on where you are. Much of central and northern New Jersey had 3 consecutive days of 90 degrees plus with Newark hitting 96 Friday and setting a record. Elsewhere however the ocean sea breeze or the prevailing southwest wind kept temperatures under 90. All of this early very warm or heatwave weather comes to an end on Monday Memorial Day as we have rain moving northward from Tropical Storm Bonnie (what’s left of it) combining with a cold front pushing in from the northwest.

Long Range Active Cool Start to June GFS UPPER AIR TUESDAY

gfs36 Long Range Active Cool Start to June

Usually these things tend to move in an orderly fashion however the main core circulation of Tropical Storm Bonnie is actually getting left behind while the tropical moisture from it is moving north northeastward around the edge of the offshore upper high. This unfortunately comes just in time for Memorial Day and models are lingering the rain well into the afternoon especially for coastal areas. The Euro weather model is the only one that seems to want to get the rain out of here by late morning or early afternoon. I think its fair to say that at least the first half of the day is going to be washed out. The second half might see improvement in western areas. The GFS model has it raining in most places into Monday evening.

Longer range we have a very interesting pattern setting up for the first half of the month of June. Both the European weather model and the GFS weather model are telegraphing a trough in the east. In fact the troughing being indicated looks to be much deeper than you usually see for this time of year.

Long Range Active Cool Start to June GFS UPPER AIR NEXT SUNDAY

gfs168 Long Range Active Cool Start to June

Long Range Active Cool Start to June Euro Model Next Sunday

euro168 Long Range Active Cool Start to June

This set up means that we will have cold fronts coming through here every 2 or 3 days. It also means that any warm ups that occur ahead of these fronts may only be limited to a day or so. This rules out heatwaves. It also means that we could see more shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple of weeks. This might be a genuine break in the longer term dry pattern we have been in. It also probably means temperatures will average near or below normal over the next couple of weeks.

Long Range Active Cool Start to June GFS UPPER AIR 6/8/2016

gfs240 Long Range Active Cool Start to June

Long Range Active Cool Start to June Euro Model 6/8/2016



euro240 Long Range Active Cool Start to JuneThe Euro weather model is especially deep with this vortex that develops in Eastern Canada. The GFS model is not as deep but actually gets to the same place a little later in time. This type of pattern could also mean some occasional threats of severe weather as these weather fronts approach. It looks like an active next couple of weeks.

 

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