Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday
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JOESTRADAMUS SUNSHINE BACK MONDAY

BLOCK IN THE EAST BREAKS DOWN BUT NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND

When it comes to a completely dry day with some sun and no rain it appears we will have to wait until Monday of next week. There is a chance we could see some brightening or some breaks of sunshine Saturday but that will depend on a couple of factors including how fast the trough in the east breaks down, and how fast the coastal low late this week dissipates or moves out to the northeast. First off let’s examine the situation for Friday. Low pressure will develop off the Delaware coast Thursday night and pretty much sit there through Friday night. This sets up a stronger onshore flow into Friday. New moon and the highest tides of the spring could mean coastal flooding. I noticed that tides are forecast to run about 3 feet above mean low water so we need to pay attention to this.  Thankfully there is no big high to the north otherwise the pressure gradient would be tighter and coastal flooding an even bigger issue.

Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

GFS SURFACE MAP FRIDAY MORNING

Joestradamus: Sunshine Back Monday

Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

GFS UPPER AIR MAP FRIDAY MORNING

gfs72 Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

The strong upper air storm stands alone along the east coast. It can’t get out of the way until something in the northern stream can come down and basically open this system up and kick it out of the way. This is what we mean by an upstream “kicker”. The next system coming down from Canada is strong enough to finally kick this thing out of here. That happens over the weekend.

Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

GFS UPPER AIR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

gfs114 Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

GFS SURFACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON

gfs126 Joestradamus Sunshine Back Monday

You can see on the upper air map for early Sunday morning that there is an upstream kicker coming down from Canada. It weakens and opens up the upper air storm and kicks it out to the east. The problem is there is a cold front that will be coming through and that will produce some showers on Sunday Mother’s day. If the front moves along perhaps weather conditions could improve later in the day. Finally by Monday the dry air from the midwest comes in and we have 2 nice days of sunshine in the cards early next week with temperatures in the 70s.

Over the longer term there is still going to be a tendency for troughing in the east later next week and some blocking but for now it does not appear to be as extreme as this pattern was.

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