JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

Yesterday Joestradamus looked at the long range into early July and noticed the trough in the east ridge in the west pattern that was being indicated would favor not too hot conditions overall in the east with cold fronts moving through every three or four days. Looking at today’s runs there isn’t really much change in this idea.

JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

GFS UPPER AIR WINDS NEXT WEDNESDAY

gfs168 JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

Jumping ahead to a weak for today.we can see that the trough in the east ridge in the west idea continues on today’s model runs. The theme carries out through day 10 as well.

JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

GFS MODEL UPPER AIR WINDS NEXT SATURDAY

gfs240 JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

In fact the theme of ridge in the west trough in the east carries out right through day 16 on the GFS model. The European Model in the long range out to day 10 is pretty much the same story. Right now this type of pattern doesn’t have any sort of look that could cause potential problems other than whatever these fronts produce when they move through. That is a short term forecast issue. What is important however is whether this pattern holds as we get deeper into hurricane season because a trough in the east would be a way to bring a storm up the east coast. Im not sayin that something like that is going to happen. However if the long long term pattern is for persistent troughing in the east, we will have to pay attention if a tropical system sets up in the southwest Atlantic. Right now however there  are no such concerns.

Speaking of the tropics the GFS model has for the last week shown some sort of tropical system in the day 10-15 day time frame. Each run handles it differently but they all seem to center on some sort of Western Caribbean Gulf of Mexico event. One thing we are noticing is that the upper level winds and wind shear pattern across the tropics are far different than they were last year.

JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

GFS UPPER AIR WIND SHEAR FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY

gfs192 JOESTRADAMUS Long Range Outlook & Tropics

While we are not speaking here in terms of any specific system, one thing we have noticed is that the wind shear pattern overall in the Gulf of Mexico is completely different from what it was for most of last years hurricane season. Last year it seemed strong winds of 40 to 50 knots at the highest levels of the atmosphere covered the Gulf of Mexico for virtually the entire summer and fall. This is not the case this year so far as the map above shows. Light wind shear is evident all across the Gulf of Mexico. We saw it also this week with Tropical Storm Danielle. This could be due to the el nino disappearing and weak la nina conditions appearing. It will be interesting to see whether this continues. If it does it is another indication of the potential of a much more active hurricane season ahead.

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