Severe Weather Threat Thursday Limited
Thursday’s severe weather threat area as shown by the Storm Prediction Center is in my view a little overdone on the northern end. The slight risk for severe weather makes sense to me but I think there is a greater chance from Southern New Jersey (southern 3 counties) and less so to the north. In fact I believe that north of 195 which will be about where the warm front will lie, will probably have showery rains to deal with and the chance for a thunderstorm. But I don’t think it will be severe.
Severe Weather Threat Thursday Limited
NAM MODEL THURSDAY MORNING
Severe Weather Threat Thursday Limited NAM MODEL MIDDAY
The issue north of Rt 195 is that there will be wind from the east or northeast and I think the marine influence will limit any thunderstorm development in those areas. Unless the warm front zooms northward areas in the Northern Half of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania (except from Philadelphia south) Long Island and Connecticut should be out of any major severe weather risk. With low pressure tracking to the south across Maryland and Delaware it makes the northern extent of severe weather vastly limited. However Southern New Jersey which was hit hard yesterday with severe weather, may have to endure another round. Also at risk will be areas south of the low center across Maryland Delaware and Virginia. Once this done, it looks like the weather should be tame going into and through the weekend.
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