Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23

Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23

Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23

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Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23

Threat For Middle Atlantic States

Only Marginal Risk Eastern PA to Southern New England

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is showing a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for extreme southern New Jersey southward into Virginia and the Northern third of North Carolina, all of Maryland and Delaware. An enhanced risk of severe weather is indicated over Northwestern Virginia and West Virginia.

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Overnight a flare up of showers and thunderstorms in the midwest has moved southeastward and is at the moment moving across the Middle Atlantic States. There have been some isolated severe thunderstorm warnings with this so far this morning. Local radar and satellite loops show this first area moving out to the east.

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storm free

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storm free

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 Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23

Afternoon & Evening Outlook

The entire zone of severe weather continues to shift to the south. Areas from Central New Jersey northeast to Southern New England are not going to see much in the way of an organized line. While all the models seem to have different ideas on how severe weather develops today, none of the short range models show anything for areas to the north of route 195 in New Jersey and route 76 in Pennsylvania.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23 HRRR Model

HRRR15 Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23

Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23 NAM Model

nam15 Severe Weather Threat Thursday June 23

The NAM and HRRR models above take different approaches to how the severe weather evolves this evening  Notice how far south the surface lows has tracked. It is now forecast to move off the Virginia Coast. The primary area of warm tropical air with strong dynamics is so far south that it is hard to imagine how anything of consequence even in the form of downpours will occur from Central New Jersey to Southern New England. I think the best approach here is to just understand that an isolated thunderstorm might develop and that would be pretty much it.

Areas from extreme Southern New Jersey down to Maryland Delaware and Virginia will be at risk for some sort of secondary line that develops later this afternoon and evening. Some of those storms could be severe especially as you head westward.

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