MICHAEL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TODAY
HURRICANE WATCH FLORIDA PANHANDLE & BIG BEND
RAPID STRENGTHENING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE…
…HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna
Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border
eastward to the Suwanee River Florida.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to
Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm
Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the
Mississippi-Alabama border.
WIDE ATLANTIC TROPICAL SATELLITE
Hurricane Watch is posted for the Florida coast and overnight we saw pressures drop 15 millibars in a little over 6 hours which defines Michael has been strengthening rapidly. There is an old saying among stock market traders “don’t fight the tape” and this is exactly the approach I’m taking here. Even though Michael is experiencing moderate shear, it hasn’t stopped it from strengthening so we are just going to go with the trend continuing until it stops. Michael will likely be at least a category 2 hurricane and it might even make it to a category 3 before landfall sometime on Wednesday.
Hurricane track models have come back to the left and north overnight which is going to be critical for outcomes after landfall from Georgia to Southern New England. A track close to the coast will allow Michael to maintain strength as a tropical storm as it moves up the East Coast.
The issues for the East Coast is rain for the Carolinas as water levels in rivers remains high from the Hurricane Florence devastation a month ago. Rainfall amounts of 2 to as much as 6 inches are being forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. This will be track dependent of course and will likely be adjusted going forward.
The latest Recon mission into Michael is currently underway and it appears that Michael may be a hurricane.
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THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property
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