DEPRESSION 14 INCREASES TO TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL 40 MPH
MICHAEL LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE, WEDNESDAY LANDFALL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
RAINS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS & EASTERN VIRGINIA
Satellite and radar loops this afternoon show that Tropical Depression 14 has increased and strength and Tropical Storm Michael has formed.
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.
GULF OF MEXICO SATELLITE
We are looking through afternoon weather models regarding where this is all going. Overnight models got rather aggressive with Michael developing into a hurricane over the next 2 days. Conditions will grow favorable for gradual strengthening over the next 2 days. Landfall is looking like sometime Wednesday somewhere from Gulfport MS. to the Florida Panhandle and probably as a minimal hurricane. The European and GFS model got very aggressive with intensity. The latest European model is about 12 hours slower than the GFS with landfall holding it off until early Thursday morning.
Impacts from heavy rain and wind will be felt in Georgia and the Carolinas because this storm is likley to track east of the Appalachians which keeps systems stronger for a longer period of time. Also there will be impact from the upper air as a deep trough and short wave will be getting involved. Timing of Michael and that trough will be key to how far north Michael gets along the east coast. The longer it takes to make landfall, the further south and east the track will be. This is the direction where models have been trending lately.
The European model as well as the GFS argue for rain and wind impacts from the Carolinas to possibly as far north as Southern New England. The upper air trough in the west will hold a very important key here going forward and models will need to be scrutinized very closely over the next few days.
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THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property