tropical storm michael

Tropical Storm Michael Develops Hurricane Risk NE Gulf Coast

DEPRESSION 14 INCREASES TO TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL 40 MPH

MICHAEL LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE, WEDNESDAY LANDFALL FLORIDA PANHANDLE

RAINS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS & EASTERN VIRGINIA

Satellite and radar loops this afternoon show that Tropical Depression 14 has increased and strength and Tropical Storm Michael has formed.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

GULF OF MEXICO SATELLITE

storm free

We are looking through afternoon weather models regarding where this is all going. Overnight models got rather aggressive with Michael developing into a hurricane over the next 2 days. Conditions will grow favorable for gradual strengthening over the next 2 days. Landfall is looking like sometime Wednesday somewhere from Gulfport MS. to the Florida Panhandle and probably as a minimal hurricane. The European and GFS model got very aggressive with intensity. The latest European model is about 12 hours slower than the GFS with landfall holding it off until early Thursday morning.

tropical storm michael

Impacts from heavy rain and wind will be felt in Georgia and the Carolinas because this storm is likley to track east of the Appalachians which keeps systems stronger for a longer period of time. Also there will be impact from the upper air as a deep trough and short wave will be getting involved. Timing of Michael and that trough will be key to how far north Michael gets along the east coast. The longer it takes to make landfall, the further south and east the track will be. This is the direction where models have been trending lately.

tropical storm michael

The European model as well as the GFS argue for rain and wind impacts from the Carolinas to possibly as far north as Southern New England. The upper air trough in the west will hold a very important key here going forward and models will need to be scrutinized very closely over the next few days.

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THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

 

 

Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property

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