Hurricane Matthew Weather Models Forecast Loop
Hurricane Matthew Weather Models Forecast Loop
Hurricane Matthew continues on a northwest coast as it begins to rake the Bahamas. Air Force Reconnaissance reports support maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and Hurricane Matthew remains a severe Category 3 hurricane. Conditions remain favorable for strengthening so Hurricane Matthew could become a category 4 hurricane again.
Weather models orchestrate a clockwise loop of Hurricane Matthew but there are distinct differences between the GFS model and the European UKMET models. The GFS completes a tight clockwise loop off the Southeast coast of the US and then takes it southwest back to Florida. The European/UK met bring the hurricane further north into Coastal North Carolina before beginning a broader loop. The other difference is that the European which yesterday was similar to the GFS today now does not complete the loop back southwestward. Since there is another trough coming across Southern Canada it weakens the ridge to the north slightly and begins to turn Matthew back northwestward. From here the southern part of that trough is approaching the Southeast Coast from the west. If this is right, then Matthew should get ejected to the east or northeast from here.
HURRICANE MATTHEW EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE
To be honest this would probably make more sense than the GFS model. The main difference is that the system approaching the East Coast that was supposed to pick Matthew up (and isn’t) is actually a shade stronger on today’s run. This is probably the reason why the European and the UKMET take Matthew further north toward Southeastern North Carolina while the GFS never gets it much further north than Charleston South Carolina. Needless to say the puzzle remains unsolved. For more on the GFS model including this morning’s video, go to the JOESTRADAMUS link.
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