Hurricane Matthew Tropical Storm Nicole & Confusion
Hurricane Matthew Tropical Storm Nicole & Confusion
These things can never be simple can they. Hurricane Matthew seems to be the only thing this afternoon behaving as it is forecast to behave. The eye is aiming for Eastern Cuba as a category 4 hurricane. Meanwhile to the northwest disturbed weather east northeast of Matthew has become Tropical Storm Nicole. You can see the storm on the edge of the satellite loop as it sits right along the western edge of the outside Matthew’s circulation. The out flow of clouds are actually touching the southwestern edge of the circulation of Nicole. Then in the lower corner of the loop we have a tropical wave moving westward and approaching the Windward Islands. It seems every system in the tropics wants to get close to Matthew.
Afternoon Global Weather Models
Today’s run of models makes for just absolute confusion. You have the GFS model which takes Matthew further east and further southeast of us which if taken literally would mean some noreaster conditions here Saturday night into Sunday morning with some rain and fringe coastal gales and not much else.
Then you have the UKMET which now adds a new wrinkle as it takes Matthew inland near Miami and keeps it inland until it gets to Charleston S.C. where it swings it east and then (Surprise) SOUTHEAST!
Of course we could use the European Model to at least lend a little bit of clarity to this and it only made things even more confusing by taking it into the East Coast of Florida…TWICE!
The hurricane models on the spaghetti plots meanwhile still show a larger number of models bringing Hurricane Matthew right up the coast.
So what is going on? Well for one thing the global models at least show that the upper trough coming through is weak. On the UKMET now it is so weak that it actually bypasses the hurricane completly which would explain the southeast movement.
Then what of Tropical Storm Nicole? Last year we had the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida northeast of Hurricane Joaquin create a weakness that turned the hurricane northeastward instead of westward as almost all models suggested. Will it do the same thing here? Or does it build the ridge to the northwest of it stronger which would give Hurricane Matthew a westward nudge. It might be a nudge that takes the storm inland over Florida. Then again it might not. For now we will leave our view of this the same as it has been. Threat for Saturday night and Sunday continues until we see evidence that we should say otherwise.
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