Hurricane Matthew Watches For Florida
Hurricane Matthew Watches For Florida Extended Southward
Hurricane Matthew is heading toward Eastern Cuba and will make landfall sometime tonight. Meanwhile to the east northeast is Tropical Storm Nicole which may or may not have a say in where Hurricane Matthew winds up. And we have disorganized disturbed weather approaching the Windward Islands.
I guess the only thing we are sure of this point is where Matthew is right now. Here are the latest advisories for both Matthew & Nicole.
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ALREADY POUNDING THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 74.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been extended southward to Golden Beach, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Golden Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti * Seven Mile Bridge to south of Golden Beach * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 74.3 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). On this track the eye of Matthew will move over the extreme portion of eastern Cuba in the next few hours. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 ...NICOLE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 61.1W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. Nicole is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
For those of you who like the European Model take a look at today’s model run. It actually takes the storm over Miami twice!
HURRICANE MATTHEW EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE
This was one of a dozen different solutions offered by this afternoon’s weather model run. The confusion only increases. The trough to the north is so flat that it completely misses Hurricane Matthew and then as a ridge build to northeast of Matthew, the hurricane is forced to loop and then turn south and southwestward back to Florida!
We can only keep deferring to the next model cycle.
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